Premier League top four races have heated up as 2022-23 draws have put many elite clubs through a strain test. Liverpool currently lead their competitors and have reduced to 1/4 odds to reach Champions League places after starting well, though injuries to Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk could undermine this advantage further.
Manchester City
Manchester City are unquestionably the team to beat this season and remain clear frontrunners for league glory. Pep Guardiola’s side were at their finest throughout 2022-23 and have added both depth and quality this summer.
Arsenal are also expected to compete for glory this season. Mikel Arteta has transformed Arsenal into top-four contenders under Arteta, while their recruitment has been outstanding; particularly getting rid of poor goalscorer Kieran Gibbs while signing Kai Havertz and Declan Rice to add attacking options.
Newcastle are an unlikely dark horse contender, yet their main problem has been scoring goals. While they were strong defensively last season, Newcastle haven’t provided enough goal threat up front; Alexander Isak could provide much-needed goalscoring ammunition once back fit and playing regularly again.
Liverpool
Liverpool’s top-four hopes rest primarily on their ability to bridge a 22-point gap to Manchester City – although this is possible, they would need to win all three remaining matches against Wolves, Bournemouth and Chelsea before facing Fulham at Fulham on the final day.
Jurgen Klopp has returned his team to playing as they did under Roy Hodgson and has gradually narrowed the gap significantly. They were given hope ahead of their final four fixtures following Saturday’s 2-2 draw against relegation-threatened Leeds which will give them hope going into them.
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Manchester United have an uphill task ahead of them this month against Manchester City and Chelsea but an AI supercomputer predicts they have a 20 per cent chance of sneaking in via their game in hand over Man United. Remembering what happened last season when they overturned a 10-point deficit with nine games left to finish top four, that may well be all it takes this time around too!
Everton
After suffering a home loss against Newcastle United, Everton seemed doomed. But their performance against Manchester City gave them hope of staying up. Prior to that match they only faced a 26.3 percent risk of going down (with odds over three to one).
Everton may not appear strong on paper, but their underlying performance has been impressive, boasting the highest xG per shot rate in the league. To remain at the top table though, Everton require results in their favor to keep pace with others in their division.
Tottenham’s season hasn’t gone according to plan, but the model thinks they have enough momentum remaining to finish in the top five. While not overly confident about winning a trophy or award this season, if Gareth Bale 2.0 continues his goalscoring form they might make a late charge at Champions League qualification by winning both final games against Leeds and Leicester respectively and hoping that both lose.
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Tottenham
Tottenham could return to the top four for the first time since 2021, but will need some luck with their remaining schedule. Over their remaining ten games, Spurs face Newcastle United, Liverpool FC and Manchester United as potential obstacles.
Postecoglou has quickly made his mark at Spurs with his attacking and entertaining style of play, yet they continue to rely heavily on Harry Kane for goals despite him not performing at his best this season. Adding another goal scorer such as Heung-min would help reduce pressure off Kane.
Roberto De Zerbi of Brighton is doing a stellar job on the south coast and it wouldn’t be surprising if they finish in the top four. Although their run of fixtures will be challenging, with Chelsea being next up, and Newcastle away then a win would push Brighton up into fifth position and secure them an Europa League qualifier spot.
